If you’ve been following the WSOP as closely as we have, you’ll have no doubt seen the crazy AK vs QQ hand from Day 4 of the WSOP Seniors Event. It’s been getting a lot of buzz online, and it created a little discussion in the PokerDeals office that we’d like to share with you today. For those of you who haven’t seen the hand, have a look below, then check out our analysis.
Pretty crazy right? We thought it was an interesting one, and a couple of people in our office started breaking it down strategically; here’s what the PokerDeals team had to say about the hand.
MATT:
I guess if we break it down…
BB’s call range here should be insanely strong, he is not closing the action and the person UTG has opened off sub 30BB.
UTG+2 should also be very strong for the same reasons as BB needs to be. So BB really should have maybe TT/AQs AKo at worst, depends on how much equity you think you can realise with a top pair/overpair type hand or if you are just gonna get blasted off it anyway vs a good player.
He can also have some traps with AA but think KK is mandatory 4b.
Flop is probably just a check fold from AK.
Turn lead reps nothing cos he never has an 8 but the 3bettor actually can so he is leading into someone with a range advantage in every way.
QQ has no reason to raise, the guy either has AA and was trapping pre or he is just wilding with something. Either way no need to raise, just call, play position and see a river and call him down on most rivers.
Once QQ raised maybe AK thinks the same as me and he would just call his good hands so maybe the guy has a flush draw only and AK can beat all the flush draws.
However, it is also possible QQ guy does the same thing with 99 and TT because if he has those hands he is much more worried about the river than he is with QQ/KK/AA and just wants to take it down now and deny equity vs whatever guy is leading 5M with.
I guess making the unorthodox raise with QQ worked out as either the AK guy levelled himself into thinking the other guy can have some bluffs with worse hands or he just literally lost his mind and punted it off thinking the guy might fold and leave himself 10BB after committing the majority of his stack.
JC:
Great analysis! The only thing I would debate is whether or not the original 3bettor will have much 8x in their range – I’d argue that they wouldn’t much when 3betting a UTG open compared to a button open. As you say, that UTG range is super strong, so 3betting things like 89s or 87s probably aren’t going to be profitable.
This is probably why AK decides to lead the turn; as they recognise that the 3bettor shouldn’t have much 8x when 3betting a UTG open – I still think it’s a bad lead but that’s probably what they’re thinking!
MATT:
I meant more that the only one of them that can have an 8 is the guy who 3bet. It won’t be often as you said but he can at least have some 78s/89s once in a while (from a theory perspective not maybe an in-game one with this exact player).
The only 8 the BB can EVER have in this situation is 88 for quads and maybe even 88 is a fold pre without closing the action. I think the turn lead is bad for this exact reason while it’s true the guy who 3bet very unlikely has an 8, the BB is even less likely to have one.
It is very hard to punish someone who cannot rep the strongest hands on a board when it is even less likely you have those strong hands yourself.
JC:
Yeah totally agree, theoretically the 3bettor is the most likely to have 8x out of the two of them, but like you say it’s extremely unlikely. Just a very weirdly played hand all around – but worked out well for Heimiller with the QQ!
What do you think? Do you agree with our analysis? Is it a bad turn lead by the AK, and is the 3bet bluff justified (if ambitious) if he believes that Heimiller shouldn’t be raising many value hands? Let us know what you think!
